A result too close to call
New Zealand's general election on Saturday ended without a clear winner, according to the BBC. Preliminary results show Prime Minister Christopher Luxon's centre-right National Party on 42 seats. As the largest party it is still 19 short of the simple majority needed to govern.
With its coalition partners ACT and New Zealand First, National would hold a slim lead over the left-leaning bloc if a deal could be struck. Labour, led by Chris Hipkins, is projected to win 36 seats. The Greens are on 16, ACT on 13 and New Zealand First on 12. The Opportunity Party is on 7 and Te Pāti Māori, which represents Māori interests, on 5.
More than 99% of votes have been counted, and National and Labour are neck-and-neck in vote share. Preliminary figures point to historically low support for the two major parties, whose combined vote share is around 60%.
What the party leaders are saying
Luxon congratulated Hipkins on a "very hard-fought race" before speaking to party colleagues. He told them: "whatever the final count, we are incredibly proud of each and everyone for you." He said he would run a caretaker government until final results are confirmed later this month. "With those final results there can then be meaningful negotiations," he said.
Hipkins showed no sign of conceding. He said the "shape of the next government" would remain uncertain "for a while". "The people have spoken," he said, adding: "It may take a bit longer to work out what they've said." He also said the next parliament would require "all of us to compromise, to work together and to find a common ground."
The Opportunity Party's role
The Opportunity Party crossed the 5% threshold to enter parliament for the first time. The BBC reports that it has been described as this election's kingmaker because it is open to working with either major bloc. Its leaders have said they would negotiate first with the party that wins the most seats. Leader Qiulae Wong said the party would work with either side.
Speaking at the party's watch party, Wong told supporters: "We believe that we can change the way we do politics to focus on the future, on the next generation, and on finding common ground."
Andrew Geddis, an election law expert at the University of Otago, said Opportunity as a "wildcard player" could "determine which bloc of parties is able to govern". He said the outcome "will come down to some very fine vote margins not just between the parties, but in individual electorates."
Cost of living and the road ahead
The campaign was shaped by the cost of living and unemployment. Julian McCrann, head of polling at Roy Morgan, told BBC News that cost of living was the main issue for many New Zealanders. He said: "Three years ago, Luxon came in saying he'd be making New Zealanders' lives better and solving these economic issues, but he hasn't really delivered."
The BBC also noted that an annual social cohesion survey found more than half of the country no longer sees New Zealand as a land of opportunity. Record numbers of New Zealanders have been leaving, many for Australia. The Greens, who have proposed forcing the two main supermarkets to divest stores to create publicly owned shops, saw their vote rise by a couple of percentage points.
The electoral commission is not due to announce the official result until 27 November. Special votes, which are cast outside a voter's electorate, including overseas, will be processed over the next three weeks. New Zealand's mixed-member proportional system means most governments are coalitions. Each voter makes two choices, one for a local representative and one for a party.
